The EU's Phase-Out of Russian Gas: Progress, Risks, and Security Implications

Abstract
This article examines the implications of the European Union's recent energy policy developments, with a particular focus on the strategy to phase out Russian gas imports and diversify supply sources. It analyzes the vulnerabilities inherent in the EU's diversification approach, highlighting the introduction of new regulatory measures-most notably Regulation (EU) 2026/261-which establish strict controls to prevent the re-entry of Russian gas through third countries. These measures, including enhanced origin verification requirements, carry significant implications for external suppliers such as Azerbaijan and transit countries like Turkiye.
The analysis identifies a structural dilemma facing the EU: despite diversification efforts, approximately 90% of its gas supply remains externally sourced, exposing the bloc to geopolitical risks, global price volatility, and long-term infrastructure lock-in. While dependence on Russian pipeline gas has declined sharply, the EU has increasingly shifted toward alternative suppliers, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States, which accounted for an estimated 57% of EU LNG imports by 2025. This shift raises critical questions about whether diversification efforts are effectively reducing dependency or merely replacing one dominant supplier with another.
The article argues that the EU's external energy policy must balance short-term energy security with long-term sustainability objectives. It concludes that the success of the EU's energy transition will depend not only on eliminating reliance on Russian gas but also on avoiding the creation of new structural dependencies.

Keywords: European Union; Energy policy; Gas diversification; Russian gas; LNG; energy security; Regulation (EU) 2026/261; Azerbaijan; Turkiye; external dependency; energy transition; geopolitical risk

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